Weekly Report — 13 November 2026

Economy#

In October, annual inflation increased to 3.75%, putting in question Banxico's decision last week to lower interest rates. The core component accelerated to 3.80%. The prices that grew the fastest were air travel, 26.36%; zucchini, 23.22%; and electricity, 18.51%.

According to the 2027 budget, public resources destined to physical investment will be MXN$ 1.03 trillion, 3.5% more than in 2026 and 2.6% of GDP. However, this amount will still be less than the fiscal deficit (RFSP), projected at MXN$ 1.55 trillion, or 3.9% of GDP. México Evalúa, a think-tank, points out that most public investment will go to railways — hardly an urgent need — which are getting seven times more money than in 2014, in real terms. Roads, energy, environmental protection and other productivity-enhancing areas are receiving budget cuts. 2014 is a crucial year of reference, because it holds the record for public investment as a proportion of GDP: 4.52%. In real terms, 2027's will be 31% lower.

According to INEGI, in October every Mexican needed MXN$ 2,594.39 in urban areas, and MXN$ 1,946.57 in rural areas, to acquire the basic food basket. While general annual inflation was 3.75%, this basket's prices grew 5.9% and 5.6% in urban and rural areas, respectively. Adding basic services to food, the basket cost MXN$ 4,985.47 in urban and MXN$ 3,576.10 in rural areas.

According to the Global Medical Trends Survey, published by WTW, a consultancy, in 2027 insurers operating in Mexico will face medical inflation of 12.8%, higher than the global average of 10.8%.

Foreign trade and relations, US–Mexico and USMCA#

A study by CSIS showed that Trump's tariffs on Mexican autos, steel, and aluminum have weakened regional trade, and warned that tightening rules of origin could increase costs and divert production outside North America. In fact, last July Mexico was displaced from its first position as auto exporter to the US by Japan and South Korea. On average, Mexican autos incorporate 40% of value added in the US, much higher than any other country.

According to the IIF, in exports of electronic and computing equipment (increasingly for AI), Mexico retains only 30% of value, while in the auto sector it gets closer to 50%. Mexico supplies 40% of US demand for servers, but little value is added in Mexico.

A study by Deloitte shows that, of Mexican investment announcements made between January 2023 and June 2026, only 11.3% materialized and are already in operation; 42% remain under development or construction; and 46.6% stayed as mere announcements with no progress at all.

After Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not stop a new migrant caravan heading north, President Sheinbaum said it will be stopped and reminded Trump that under her administration no such caravan has reached the US.

Politics and social issues#

The government continues trying to deflect blame for INE's corruption onto past administrations, but it is increasingly a futile and counterproductive strategy. This week's op-ed pieces were overwhelmingly dedicated to this issue: not just condemnations of what is clearly a slander campaign against respected past leaders of IFE/INE, but new revelations about the corruption network of Ms. Taddei (the recently resigned chairwoman), which penetrates deeply into the MORENA establishment. Other analysts have questioned the amount of time President Sheinbaum devotes to defending corrupt officials. In the meantime, the MORENA-dominated Chamber of Deputies slashed MXN$ 11 billion from INE's budget, in the year with the largest midterm election ever. The ultimate target seems to be to declare (as with other autonomous agencies) that INE is irredeemably corrupt and needs to be replaced — by the government itself.

According to a study by ITESM, between 1990 and 2020 the downtowns of 70 Mexican cities lost 2.5 million inhabitants to the periphery. Those downtowns now concentrate 20% instead of 40% of the urban population. In the case of CDMX, between 2000 and 2020 its population grew by 3 million, but 26% of the urban area lost inhabitants. The main reason is that people forming their first household find urban centers too expensive. The consequences are harmful: longer commutes to school and work, more pollution, dormitory neighborhoods, loneliness (as meeting friends and family becomes onerous), and less productivity. A first step would be to increase the supply of small, cheaper homes downtown.

Now that the storm seems to have abated, the UIF partially lifted the freeze on Rubén Rocha's accounts. Thus, the former governor of Sinaloa, whose extradition the US has requested, will be able to dispose of his pension money, which under Mexican law cannot be seized. Strangely, although his accounts were frozen, there seems to be no judicial investigation in progress.

Technology, environment, health, industries and services#

The Deer Park refinery in Texas has finally become profitable for PEMEX: from January to September it reported a net profit of US$ 1.88 billion (the cost of acquiring the rest of the stock from Shell was US$ 1.81 billion). Better operating margins and improved efficiency after a maintenance phase were the main reasons. It is the only PEMEX refinery that turns a profit.

The CNE, the national energy commission, approved six solar energy projects for US$ 750 million, which will add 649 MW to the system. They will enter operation in 2028–29.