EconomyForeign trade and USMCAPoliticsEnergy, technology and environment
Weekly Report — 6 November 2026
+3.2%
Annual GDP growth in the third quarter, the fastest in three years
6.25%
Banxico's main interest rate after an unexpected cut, the lowest since February 2022
+40%
Annual growth of Mexican exports to the US in September, a record US$ 62.20 billion
Economy
In the third quarter, and at annual rate, Mexico's GDP grew 3.2%, its fastest rate in exactly three years. Although agriculture grew 1.8%, industry did so by 3.1% and services by 3.3%. Analysts remark that a low comparison base helps increase the growth rate, as do non-auto manufacturing exports which, although with little domestic value added, nonetheless support growth.
Another factor spurring growth has been investment. According to the Treasury, by the third quarter public investment had been MXN$ 637.63 billion, 8% more than a year before. Education grew 316%; health grew 228%. Private investment, until July, had grown 6.7%.
In an unexpected decision, and by a tight margin of 3–2, Banxico decided to lower its main interest rate from 6.5% to 6.25%. It is the lowest rate since February 2022. This leaves the differential with US rates at a historical minimum of 2.25%, and it could get even closer if the Fed decides to increase rates as a response to persistent inflation in the US. Many analysts are worried that the peso could depreciate significantly and that incentives to invest in Mexico diminish.
Foreign trade and relations, US–Mexico and USMCA
After the massive political defeat of Republicans in the midterm elections, there has been a lot of speculation about what it could mean for Mexico. Two things are sure: Mexico was not a campaign issue, and the fight against corrupt politicians enabling organized crime and drug trafficking is not a divisive subject. In fact, El Mayo's kidnapping and arrest took place during the Biden administration. In any case, Trump will still be president for two years, and he retains wide powers over national security and foreign policy. So, most likely, the Mexican government's hopes that this will mean diminished pressure will turn out to be a disappointment. As for USMCA, analysts also expect that nothing much will change.
Mexican exports to the US set yet another record in September, with US$ 62.20 billion, their fifth consecutive month of growth. This is an annual 40% increase, and 17.60% of US imports. Canada is a distant second place, with 9.9%. From January to September, exports were US$ 481.60 billion, a 20% annual increase. In the same period, the US trade deficit with Mexico was US$ 184 billion, slightly below Vietnam's US$ 190 billion.
In September, Mexico received US$ 5.36 billion in foreign remittances, its lowest level in five months, but 1.6% more at annual rate. Even though the Republicans' defeat could mean a less aggressive migration policy, analysts do not expect remittances to recover in the short term. CEMLA, a think-tank, says that during January–September 2026 Mexican migrants' employment decreased by 278,000 in construction, 107,000 in food and entertainment, and 80,000 in manufacturing, at annual rates.
Politics and social issues
The government's defensive reaction to INE's scandal has translated into the blocking of accounts of 24 individuals and 15 businesses by the UIF, the financial intelligence unit, but not (yet) into arrest warrants. The regime has also insisted on separating itself from Guadalupe Taddei, the fugitive chairwoman, and her main supplier and lover, Alfredo Hernández, who are supposed to be, respectively, in Arizona and Argentina. But its attempts to distance itself from those people, and to blame past INE administrations, will probably backfire, as it is crystal clear that Taddei is completely MORENA's, and that until her tenure INE had been one of the cleanest and most respected Mexican institutions, even internationally.
Technology, environment, health, industries and services
In August, Mexican imports of US natural gas were 7.71 billion cubic feet a day (bcfd), 4.3% more at annual rate, and a historical record. Mexico is the US's most important destination for gas, with 28.4% of its exports. Even so, Mexico's domestic production also increased, with a 4.94 bcfd average in the third quarter, a 9.8% increase.
A study by energy expert Francisco Barnés shows that, between 2018 and 2024, PEMEX TRI (Industrial Transformation, or refining) had losses of MXN$ 1.40 trillion, 80% of all PEMEX net losses during that administration. Its net assets fell from MXN$ −162 billion to MXN$ −1.5 trillion. The reason is a domestic decision to export less and refine more, flooding Mexican refineries (created for light crudes) with sulphur-heavy crude oil. That caused a 50% decline in the productivity of high-value fuels (compared to the Calderón administration, 2006–2012), and losses of US$ 40 per barrel processed. Another negative externality has been serious pollution: while Mexican norms demand at least 90% recovery of sulphur compounds, refineries' recovery levels are within 15–30%; the emission levels of SO2 (a dangerous pollutant) increased 118%, to 2.43 kg/barrel, more than double what PEMEX reports.
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