Weekly Report — 30 October 2026

Economy#

INEGI's timely estimate puts third-quarter GDP growth at 3.2% at annual rate and 0.9% against the second quarter, a third consecutive quarterly gain. It beat the 3.0% expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, it is the highest annual rate since the third quarter of 2023, and it is the best quarter of the Sheinbaum administration; the two preceding quarters grew 2.1% and 0.2% at annual rate. By sector, services led with 3.4% annual growth, industry grew 3.0% and agriculture 2.2%, though in quarterly terms agriculture fell 0.4%. The drivers were a rebound in public investment, exports to the US tied to AI demand, and higher activity in commerce and services. The more telling number may be the size of the forecasting error: the consensus in June was 1.1% for the whole year.

IGAE, the monthly activity index, grew 3.5% at annual rate in August, its largest advance in almost three years, and 0.6% at monthly rate. Industry grew 3.6%, its best result since 2023, and services 3.7%, while agriculture fell 3.3%. Within industry, manufacturing grew 3.2% and construction 7.9%. The fastest-growing sector of all was wholesale trade, at 12.2% — which is less encouraging than it sounds, since a good part of it is the distribution of imported components to assembly plants.

Forecasters increased their projections for the Mexican economy this year. Banamex moved its 2026 estimate from 1.4% to 2.0%, Banorte from 1.4% to 1.9%, Goldman Sachs from 1.4% to 1.7%, Banco Base from 1.6% to 1.8%, and Oxford Economics from 1.5% to 1.6%. The IMF raised its estimate from 1.2% to 1.5% in October, and the OECD from 0.8% to 1.5% in September.

September exports reached US$ 77,797 million, 37.9% above a year earlier and an eighth consecutive month of double-digit growth. Non-automotive manufactures grew 53%, and 57.2% in shipments to the US; automotive exports grew only 5.7%. Imports were US$ 78,403 million, up 33.1%, with intermediate goods up 38.8%. The monthly deficit was US$ 606 million, 75.6% smaller than in September 2025; January–September closed with a surplus of US$ 9,254 million, against a deficit of US$ 3,398 million in the same period last year.

One indicator that may point to a more sustained recovery is the increase in imports of capital goods, the usual leading signal of productive investment. In September they reached US$ 5,477 million, an annual rise of 18.7% and the largest increase since May 2024.

The origin of the positive results in Mexico might be visible in the US numbers released the same day. The American economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter, above the 3.2% expected and its fastest pace in four quarters. Business investment rose 19.4% and contributed 3.3 percentage points; spending on equipment rose 20.9%, and within it computers and related equipment jumped 66.7%. Andrés Abadía of Pantheon Macroeconomics expects this to keep supporting demand for Mexican manufactures and intermediate goods, though he notes the size of the benefit depends on Mexico's place in those supply chains and on the state of the trade relationship.

The peso closed at 18.83 per dollar on Thursday, after depreciating 1.14% in the session, its weakest level since August 2025; it touched 18.89 intraday, a new high for the dollar this year.

Inflation accelerated to 3.62% at annual rate in the first half of October, and Finance Minister Edgar Amador admitted it would have reached 5.2% without the subsidies to fuel prices, whose net fiscal cost through September exceeded MXN$ 108 billion (approximately US$ 5.7 billion; peso figures throughout are converted at US$ 1 ≈ MXN$ 18.80). With crude prices still elevated, this will continue to take a toll on Mexican public finances. Amador also offered some favorable numbers: public investment up 10.2% cumulatively through July, private investment up 6.7% in July alone, record FDI of US$ 34 billion in the first half, public debt closing 2026 at 54% of GDP, and the budget revenue stabilization fund above MXN$ 173 billion (approximately US$ 9.2 billion), its highest since 2020.

Foreign trade and relations, US–Mexico and USMCA#

Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard said an agreement to reduce US tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum is “probable” only after the US midterm elections of November 3 — “probable, no sé”, in his own words. The 50% tariff on both metals stays in place, and automotive duties remain on the table. Janneth Quiroz of Monex notes that the metals talks are stalled, with no date set for a fourth round. Mexico has offered to buy more US energy and to cut imports from third countries, particularly China. Ebrard also observed that the tariffs raise revenue for the US Treasury, which is the real reason not to expect them to disappear quickly.

The quiet success is the treaty itself. More than 83% of Mexican shipments to the US now qualify under USMCA rules of origin, against roughly 50% in 2024, and the average effective tariff on Mexican goods is 3.2%. Exporters adapted far faster than the negotiation has advanced. This is worth keeping in mind when reading the review's noise: current flows are already largely sheltered, which is why an adverse outcome in 2027 would be so costly.

Cattle exports resumed through Chihuahua's second border crossing, with a first shipment of 750 head, under the protocols agreed with Washington after more than a year of closure caused by the screwworm. The reopening is gradual and conditional, and the sector has lost a full cycle.

Politics and social issues#

Guadalupe Taddei resigned as chairwoman of INE on October 26, a week after the corruption allegations. The Chamber of Deputies received the resignation and began the replacement process. INE's General Council named Blanca Yassahara Cruz García provisional president; she will hold the post only until the Chamber elects a substitute by a two-thirds majority. The choice is not reassuring: Cruz García was one of the three councillors whose appointment in April 2026 was backed only by MORENA and its allies, and the Observatorio Permanente de Integridad Electoral found that she voted with Taddei between 88% and 100% of the time from late April to September. President Sheinbaum requested an audit from the Auditoría Superior de la Federación covering not only Taddei's tenure but also Lorenzo Córdova's — a framing that conveniently seeks to distribute the blame — and said Taddei had “betrayed the people's trust”.

The contracts at the center of the case are becoming clearer. The ASF opened an investigation into irregular contracting, conflicts of interest, collusion among suppliers and the triangulation of public funds. Cajas Graf and Corporativo Zeg received two direct awards in 2025 worth MXN$ 197.6 million (approximately US$ 10.5 million) for materials for the judicial election; the same firms hold contracts with local electoral bodies in at least 13 states, and El Universal counts seven companies with more than MXN$ 1 billion (approximately US$ 53 million) in such contracts. Cosmocolor, the supplier of voter ID cards, is under scrutiny for overpricing on the institute's largest contract.

Truckers began mobilizations on October 26, with blockades at highway access points and logistics corridors in 20 to 25 states. The demands are highway insecurity, extortion and “cobro de piso” on freight routes, abuses by tow-truck and impound operators, road infrastructure, and tax and regulatory pressure. The organizations accuse the Governance Department (Segob) of failing to fulfill the commitments made in 2024. Nevertheless, new negotiations with the government are underway, which has tempered the protests.

IMSS workers and retirees called for a national mega-march on Friday, October 30, in Mexico City and 14 states. The Technical Council approved an 8% wage increase on October 21 and it was rejected: the dispute is about supplies, equipment and working conditions, and about the removal of SNTSS leader Rafael Olivos, a MORENA substitute federal deputy.

Technology, environment, health, industries and services#

The government's antitrust agency, Comisión Nacional Antimonopolio, fined nine technology firms and their directors MXN$ 67 million (approximately US$ 3.6 million) for rigging 14 public tenders between 2012 and 2022. All belonged to a single economic interest group, Grupo Soluciones, which ran an internal unit known as “La Fábrica de Licitaciones” (The Tender Factory) that chose which company would win each contract and drafted the competing bids. Pemex, IMSS, ISSSTE, Conagua and the Ministry of Economy paid overcharges above 40%. The resolution was referred to the Anticorruption and Good Governance Ministry; the firms may still appeal. The fine, against a decade of overcharges across five agencies, is derisory.

CFE reported a net loss of MXN$ 23.31 billion (approximately US$ 1.24 billion) in the third quarter, against a profit of MXN$ 56.42 billion (approximately US$ 3.0 billion) a year earlier. Operating profit fell 53% and revenues 1%, even though the volume of energy sold rose 3.4%. The utility attributes the swing mainly to a smaller foreign-exchange gain — an accounting effect, not a cash outflow — but costs rose on an actuarial update of labor obligations and higher payroll, and it acknowledges deterioration in its receivables. Long-term debt grew 5.5%, to MXN$ 422 billion (approximately US$ 22.4 billion). This is the company expected to supply the data-center boom behind the export figures above.