Weekly Report — 25 September 2026

Economy#

In the first half of September, inflation picked up speed, to 3.42% annually. The core rate did grow less, by 3.79%, with services' rate at 4.33% and merchandise at 3.22%. The non-core component went from 1.30% to 2.17%, with agricultural products up by 0.35% and energy and government-fixed prices up by 3.67%.

According to IOAE, an early warning indicator later confirmed or corrected by IGAE, in August Mexico's GDP would have grown 2.5%, the second consecutive month of growth above 2%, after July's 2.8%. Industry grew 2.7%, and services 2.6%. Analysts warn this trend will hardly be sustainable in the coming quarters, but nevertheless it ensures at least 1% GDP growth for all of 2026.

In the first semester, private consumption grew 1.5% a year, meaning basically all GDP growth, which was 1.1%. Other components which grew were government consumption, 0.3%, and gross fixed investment, 0.1%. Exports contributed 3.4%, but imports subtracted 6.7% from GDP growth.

Moody's warned that growth under 2% a year is totally insufficient to drive towards fiscal consolidation and debt stabilization. Priorities in conflict have had a noticeable impact on debt and deficit: whereas in 2023 Mexico was paying 10% of total expenditure on debt service, since 2024 it has been around 17%, more than double what Peru and Panama pay — countries which, in addition, have higher growth rates.

According to INEGI's Inter-Census Report 2025, while in 2020 (a crisis year) 25% of households received cash from some sort of government assistance program, in 2025 41.4% of them did. At the extremes are Guerrero, with 57%, and Baja California, with 28.4%. The proportion which received money from pensions increased, from 13.3% to 16%, and the proportion receiving foreign remittances decreased, from 5.1% to 4.7%.

Foreign trade and relations, US–Mexico and USMCA#

The US reduced its weekly exports of refined oil products (mainly diesel) by 17.5%, trying to increase domestic supply to contain prices. This could be a warning sign for Mexico, which currently imports 44% of its consumption. Any further reduction could increase import prices, putting additional strain on already beleaguered public finances and PEMEX's balance.

Politics and social issues#

INEGI's Inter-Census Report 2025 revealed many trends. Mexico's population reached 130.9 million, 2.3 million less than expected in 2020. This is because the fertility rate dropped sharply, from 1.9 to 1.2 children per fertile woman; no state reaches the replacement rate, 2.1. Thus, Mexico's population is rapidly aging: while the median age increased by 3 years in 2010–2020, it did so in just half the years, 2020–2025, when it went from 26 to 29 years. CDMX is the oldest, 37; Chiapas the youngest, 26. The active-to-dependent ratio has remained stable at its lowest level, 100 economically active people per 46 dependents, but most of the latter are now old-age instead of children, and this is much more expensive. Mexico also bleeds working-age population: in 2020–2025, 1.26 million emigrated, 57% more than in the previous period; 71% were 15–34 years of age, and 70% of all emigrants were men. A possible resource to combat this is women's workforce participation, which grew only 2.2 percentage points, from 38.8% to 41%, while the male proportion was 70% in 2025.

Another revelation was that at least 1.6 million people live in households where at least one member has been forced to leave and go somewhere else on account of violence and insecurity. This forcible displacement figure drew doubts from the President, who demanded that the question posed by INEGI be clarified.

There is much confusion surrounding the operation in which authorities seized a fuel plant in Guanajuato. Initially, they said 59 million liters of illegal fuel had been discovered. Later, though, it turned out that the plant is the property of SIMSA, a well-known firm which says everything is legal. The operation started with a fuel truck whose driver was, supposedly, unable to prove the traceability of its content. The investigation led to this plant, but it is not even clear that the fuel left from that facility. The state representative of FGR, the official mainly responsible for the operation, has already been fired. It is not certain what the outcome will be, other than that the government has fallen into a blunder.

Technology, environment, health, industries and services#

CLAA, the Latin American Customs Agents Association, warned that recent customs reforms aimed at reducing the undervaluation of merchandise could mean significant costs, mainly from longer times at customs houses and from cautionary cash retentions, which would diminish liquidity for firms. Across-the-board preventive measures, instead of more targeted ones, unfairly punish most importers, who act legally, as well as consumers.