Weekly Report — 2 October 2026

Economy#

The IMF updated its estimate for Mexico's GDP in 2026 to a growth of 1.5%, from the previous 1.2%, but lowered 2027's, from 1.9% to 1.8%. It also said Mexico needs to do more to consolidate public finances in order to stabilize and gradually reduce debt as a proportion of GDP.

In January–August, public expenditure grew faster than revenue, even though less money was spent than budgeted. The sum spent was MXN$ 6.40 trillion, MXN$ 477.06 billion less than budgeted, but with an annual growth of 3.1%, while revenue grew only 1.3%. Programmable expenditure (goods and services for the public) was particularly punished, with MXN$ 5.57 trillion, or MXN$ 314.495 billion less than budgeted; non-programmable expenditure was MXN$ 1.02 trillion excluding debt service, which was MXN$ 822.50 billion. The result is a budget deficit MXN$ 276 billion lower than expected, at the cost of fewer goods and services for the population, and still only 0.1% lower than last year's.

In January–August, daily average crude oil production was 1.65 mbd, 2% higher at an annual rate, but still too far from AMLO's promise that it would reach 2.4–2.6 mbd by the end of his administration. Crude oil exports were 276,000 barrels a day; gasoline production was 23% and diesel production 49% higher at an annual rate, and domestic sales of those fuels increased 15% and 17%, respectively. In August alone, though, daily average crude oil production was 1.33 million barrels, 2.7% less than a year before, and the lowest figure ever on record. Crude oil exports were 275,700 barrels a day, 44.9% less at an annual rate; revenue from exports was US$ 626.9 million, 34.3% less. All this is bad news for beleaguered public finances.

Foreign trade and relations, US–Mexico and USMCA#

In January–August, Mexican exports were US$ 549.39 billion, an annual growth of 29.3%, pushed mainly by non-auto manufactures. All manufactures grew 30.8%, but auto did so by only 0.8%, while non-auto grew 45%. Sustained high demand from the AI industry has promoted exports of computing and electronic equipment (in August alone, electric and electronic equipment exports grew 122.3%).

In August, imports were US$ 77.40 billion, 34.2% higher than a year before. Consumer products grew 8.9%, intermediate 41.9%, and capital 6.9%. In January–August, imports grew 26.8%: consumer 9.6%, intermediate 32.7%, and capital 3%. In the same period, the trade balance had a surplus of US$ 9.86 billion, with a deficit in the oil balance of US$ 22.33 billion and a non-oil surplus of US$ 32.19 billion.

In August, Mexico received US$ 5.45 billion in foreign remittances, 3.6% less than a year before. Thus, a six-month trend of growth was interrupted. Still, in January–August, the figure is US$ 41.80 billion, 2.2% higher at an annual rate.

The US delivered 20 fugitives sought by the Mexican authorities, totaling 370 during the second Trump administration. In turn, Mexico has delivered 92 people, but not those with the highest profile, among them Sinaloa's former governor Rubén Rocha and his accomplices (two of whom surrendered voluntarily to US authorities).

Politics and social issues#

Investigations into the last administration's corruption have been forced to move, responding to pressure from the US, the media, and civil organizations. Another possible factor is the internecine war within MORENA, between AMLO's hardcore supporters and President Sheinbaum's loyalists. Amílcar Olán, a longtime friend and suspected straw man of AMLO's sons, was found in Switzerland by TV Azteca, a TV network hated by the regime. Now it has been reported that the UIF, the financial intelligence unit, is actually investigating him (but not AMLO's sons) after detecting an account with MXN$ 1.4 billion (US$ 76.88 million) in a Swiss bank. Then, Captain Miguel A. Solano, a Navy member, was arrested on charges of illegal fuel trafficking. Finally, the NYT said two unidentified US agencies were looking into Andy López Beltrán's activities, although no formal investigation has been identified yet. In response, AMLO appeared on TV, promoting a new book, but in fact reminding President Sheinbaum that "love is paid back in love", and that he voluntarily declined to remain as a power behind the throne. All this seems to be a sign of worry that further trouble is ahead for the AMLO clan.

Technology, environment, health, industries and services#

According to OCE, a think-tank specialized in oil, as of the second quarter Mexico's diesel consumption was 434,000 barrels a day, with 58.5% coming from PEMEX, 23.7% from PEMEX's imports, and 17.5% from private imports. To those figures must be added approximately 80,000 barrels a day imported illegally ("fiscal huachicol"). That's about 16% of daily consumption.