EconomyForeign trade and USMCAPoliticsEnergy, technology and environment
Weekly Report — 18 September 2026
+2.4%
Annual growth of industrial activity in July, the best result in 33 months
58% of GDP
Total public debt Fitch expects by the end of 2026
18.5 M
Individual investment-fund accounts, up from 2.5 million in 2019
Economy
In July, industrial activity had its best result in 33 months, with an annual 2.4% growth. It is its fourth consecutive month of growth; analysts expect moderate increases in the near future, but within an unpredictable environment. Construction led with 6.7%. Manufacturing finally grew, by 1.3%, after 12 consecutive months of decline. This means, of course, that manufacturing levels are still far from a year ago. This growth was led by oil and coal products, with 14.4%, followed by computing and electronic equipment, with 13.5%. Transport equipment grew only 0.9%, but it is good news after 19 consecutive months of decline.
According to AMIB, the stockbroking institutions association, the net assets of financial investment funds in Mexico grew 11.80% at annual rate as of the end of August, reaching MXN$ 5.36 trillion (USD$ 310.95 billion). There are 29 such institutions, managing 638 funds (255 debt, 383 equity). Individual accounts have exploded: from 2.5 million in 2019 to 18.5 million so far in 2026.
Fitch Ratings said the government's 2027 budget is more realistic than last year's, although there remain serious risks for Mexico's investment grade in the midterm. These concern basically the possibility of reining in debt's growth as a proportion of GDP, fiscal consolidation, and shocks or prolonged economic stagnation. PEMEX remains a significant liability. Fitch estimates a total public debt of 58% of GDP by the end of 2026; to stabilize debt, the deficit would have to be 2.5% of GDP — something impossible for next year.
As of June, health-sector inflation was 4.83% annual, while general inflation was 3.37%. Private-sector health inflation, however, is much higher, and by the end of 2026 could reach 14.8%, according to CIEP, a public finance think-tank. A large part of the problem is caused by the public sector's ineffectiveness and lack of coverage: 40% of people have no insurance whatsoever, neither public nor private. As it has deteriorated, demand for private services has increased, and so have prices.
Foreign trade and relations, US–Mexico and USMCA
USMCA's bilateral negotiations' fourth round was postponed again, with no definitive date agreed, although it could be September 28–29. The private sector (CCE) says it will focus on the reduction of tariffs under Section 232 affecting the steel, aluminum, and auto sectors.
Politics and social issues
There is a mystery concerning the whereabouts of Adm. Rafael Ojeda, AMLO's navy secretary. The defense of his nephew-in-law, Fernando Farías, a rear-admiral accused of illegal fuel trade, has demanded his appearance as witness, but FGR says it can't locate him. There are, however, several testimonies that he shows up every Saturday for golf at an expensive Mexico City country club, as well as that he keeps collecting his salary. President Sheinbaum has said there is no investigation against him, forgetting that he is being summoned as (key) witness, not as defendant.
President Sheinbaum has struggled to position her candidates for governorships, 17 of which will be elected next year. MORENA's hardliners have been successful in most of the states, with governors in office hinting they could be tepid in their support if the chosen do not have their approval. This is yet another sign that she is by no means in control of the party. These candidatures, by the way, are totally illegal as of timing, something that has not merited much comment from the president.
Accusations (in the media, not in court) of high officials' disproportionate enrichment keep accumulating. To the case of Carlos Ulloa, the head of BIRMEX, a government agency in charge of drugs distribution who bought two apartments, cash, for MXN$ 22 million, now is being added that of Octavio Romero, CEO of Infonavit (housing) and formerly of PEMEX. Mr. Romero has about MXN$ 47 million in assets, something that was unknown before, as he has no relevant executive level or entrepreneurial history. He had tried to have his declaration of assets kept secret, until the president reproached him for it. Predictably, he has denounced a slandering campaign from obscure quarters, but the fact is MORENA members have suddenly turned out to be great businesspeople or scions of rich families who leave them fortunes in inheritance.
Technology, environment, health, industries and services
According to the 2027 federal budget, firms owned by the military, including the Navy, will have losses of MXN$ 2.42 billion. That's MXN$ 6.6 million a day. The biggest loser will be Mundo Maya Group, a conglomerate of hotels, gas stations, entertainment parks, and other facilities. It is projected to lose MXN$ 1.34 billion. The Maya Train, in its first year of carrying cargo, will lose MXN$ 990 million. Mexicana (airline), the Inter-Oceanic Train, and the Islas Marías resort will also lose money. Many people wonder why the military operates such firms.
Also in