EconomyForeign trade and USMCAPoliticsEnergy, technology and environment
Weekly Report — 28 August 2026
+43.7%
Annual growth of Mexican exports in July, to a record USD 81.42 bn
USD 34.96 bn
FDI in the first half — a record, but 88.5% is reinvested profit
1.5%
Banxico's new 2026 growth estimate, up from 1.1%
Economy
Banxico decided to raise its GDP growth estimate for 2026, from 1.1% to 1.5%, due to better than expected growth in the second quarter. It warned, however, that in the next two quarters growth will be slower. For 2027, it reduced it, from 2.1% to 2.0%.
During the first semester, Mexico received USD$ 34.96 billion in FDI, the highest amount ever recorded and 2.1% more than a year before. However, 88.5% of it was profit reinvestment, which is good, but is not new investment. The latter was 7.8%, a paltry USD$ 2.72 billion. The highest growth came from computing, communications, and electronic equipment, which received USD$ 1.74 billion.
In the first half of August, inflation accelerated to 3.26%, from the previous 3.14%, still within Banxico's target. The core component slowed down a bit, to 3.93%. Most of the increase came from agricultural products.
Foreign trade and relations, US–Mexico and USMCA
Mexican exports keep breaking records: in July they were USD$ 81.42 billion, an annual growth of 43.7%. As in recent months, the main impulse came from non-auto manufactures, which were USD$ 59.84 billion, grew 64.9% and were 73% of all exports. Electric and electronic equipment grew an unprecedented 134%. They're part of non-oil exports, which were 84.5% of the total and grew 49.8%. Auto exports grew only 2.4%, while oil grew 6.8%, agriculture decreased 8.6%, and extractive exports grew 87.1%.
Imports also grew, by 45%, also setting a record, with USD$ 82.26 billion. The main drivers were intermediate goods, which grew 56.3% and represented 81.6% of all imports. Capital-goods imports grew 9.9%, their largest increase in 27 months. The trade deficit was USD$ 848 million: a deficit of USD$ 3.65 billion in oil goods, and a surplus of USD$ 2.80 billion in non-oil.
Analysts have pointed out that this huge increase in Mexican exports, mainly to the US, has not caused a spike in the US deficit with Mexico. The reason is that the principal impulse comes from exports related to servers and other computing equipment demanded by the AI industry. That is why, along with this spike in exports, there is significant growth in intermediate goods' imports, mostly chips and other components which are later incorporated into finished equipment; much of these imports come from the US. It is clear, then, that bilateral trade is not a zero-sum game, but the main component of integrated North American supply chains, in fact two closely related economies.
Politics and social issues
Rubén Rocha, a politician accused by the US of ties to organized crime, and demanded in extradition, reassumed his post as governor of Sinaloa (from which he was on leave), but only for 36 hours, as the Presidency promptly operated to make him retreat. Reversing course, the President, MORENA and the party's other governors demanded Rocha to act responsibly, whereas previously they all had defended him from the US, demanding proof of guilt before extradition (which violates the treaty on the matter). It is not clear exactly what happened for Rocha to try to reassume power and for the President to change course. Analysts speculate over whether Rocha acted on his own initiative, or under orders of AMLO. What seems clear is that all is not well within the ruling group, and that pressure from the US has taken a significant toll on the party's cohesion and the country's governability in general.
Enrique Inzunza, another politician accused by the US alongside Rocha, decided to remain as senator (against the president's advice), but resigned from MORENA to become independent. Mr. Inzunza's decision puts at risk MORENA's two-thirds majority in the Senate, which allows it to change the Constitution at will.
During the trial of Fernando Farías, a former Rear Admiral accused of illegal traffic of fuel, his lawyer demanded the appearance as witness of Rafael Ojeda, admiral, former Navy secretary under AMLO, and uncle in law to Farías (and his brother, also in jail). Incredibly, FGR, the general attorney, said nobody knows where Ojeda lives. Several testimonies have indicated that Ojeda received early warnings of the illegal traffic network established within the Navy, and then did nothing or covered up the scheme.
Technology, environment, health, industries and services
According to CREA, a think-tank, Mexico has been the second country hit the hardest by the increase in oil exports derived from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Between March and August, the net impact (imports vs. exports) was USD$ 2.50 billion, slightly less than Indonesia with USD$ 2.60 billion.
According to a study by Oxford Economics/AB InBev, the more than 30,000 bars operating in Mexico contributed (in the twelve months studied) USD$ 2.7 billion to GDP and USD$ 500 million in taxes. They create 163,000 direct jobs and are visited at least once a month by 16.1 million people, of which 26% visit at least once a week.
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