Weekly Report — 21 August 2026

Economy#

Mexico's statistics agency INEGI estimated annual growth of 2.7% for July in its timely economic activity indicator (IOAE), the strongest reading since March 2024, with services up 2.8% and industry up 1.8%. Momentum is thinner than it looks: monthly growth was only 0.1%, and analysts at Monex and Finamex attribute much of the annual gain to a weak base in July 2025. Cumulative growth for January–July is 1.5%.

The Mexican peso broke below 17 per US dollar on Thursday, trading at 16.95 after the U.S. Treasury announced it will double its bond buyback operations between September 9 and November 4.

S&P Global Ratings said Mexico's seven largest banks retain solid fundamentals, while projecting GDP growth of only 1.0% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. Their combined net loan portfolio reached MXN$ 6.2 trillion (approximately USD$ 366 billion),¹ a real annual increase of 3.58%, and combined earnings MXN$ 121.7 billion (approximately USD$ 7.2 billion), up 1.7% in real terms.

Withdrawals from Mexican private pension accounts on grounds of unemployment reached MXN$ 27.052 billion (approximately USD$ 1.6 billion) in January–July, up 23.4% in real terms and the highest on record for the period, according to pension regulator CONSAR.

Mexico's Ministry of Finance (SHCP) must submit the 2027 budget package to Congress by September 7; the test will be whether it shows a credible path of deficit reduction.

Foreign trade, US–Mexico relationship and USMCA#

The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary determination imposing anti-dumping duties of 3.37% to 5.28% (an average of 4.83%) on Mexican winter-season strawberries, following a petition by Florida growers. Mexico's Ministry of Economy rejected the ruling as inconsistent with the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement and the USMCA, arguing that the Department arbitrarily applied the concepts of "winter strawberry" and of a regional market. Mexico shipped 263,000 tons to the United States in 2025, worth roughly USD$ 1 billion; a final ruling is due in early 2027.

Washington's handling of Canada set a benchmark for Mexico. U.S. tariffs of 50% on roughly USD$ 20 billion of Canadian goods took effect on August 19. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled a provisional deal that would cut tariffs on cars and trucks from 25% to 15% before deductions for U.S. content, and cap steel and aluminum at 25% with volume quotas. Mexican exports still face 25% on vehicles and 50% on steel.

Mexico's Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, reiterated the request that the United States approve no new tariffs while the USMCA review is under way, and asked for relief on the Section 232 measures on vehicles, steel and aluminum, arguing that Mexican-built cars are charged 25% while vehicles from Japan, South Korea or Germany face 15%, despite containing less U.S. content.

% ad valorem

Mexico25%

Canada (provisional)15%

Japan15%

South Korea15%

Germany15%

Source: Section 232 · provisional US–Canada deal · Mexican-built cars are charged ten points more than those from Japan, South Korea or Germany, despite containing more US content.View table

Mexico's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) confirmed that 17 Mexican nationals have died during U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations, with USD$ 24,788 provided per case to repatriate remains; the United Nations human rights office has expressed concern.

Politics#

Rubén Rocha Moya resumed office as governor of the state of Sinaloa on Friday, August 21, after 112 days of leave. He stepped aside on May 1 following U.S. Department of Justice allegations that he had received support from the "Chapitos" faction of the Sinaloa Cartel to win the 2021 election and later shielded its operations. Mexico's Attorney General's Office (FGR) found no minimum evidence of criminal conduct. Rocha Moya, who had waived his constitutional immunity, said he returns "with a clean record", called the accusations politically motivated, and will serve until October 31, 2027.

The General Council of the National Electoral Institute (INE) approved a draft 2027 budget of MXN$ 31,431.9 million (approximately USD$ 1.85 billion) on August 18. It includes MXN$ 10,842.7 million (USD$ 640 million) in public financing for parties and independent candidacies and MXN$ 4,736.1 million (USD$ 279 million) held in reserve for a possible popular consultation and recall vote.

A federal security operation in Michoacán on August 19 triggered more than twenty road blockades; nine alleged members of a criminal cell were detained. Argentina authorized the transfer to Mexico of former rear admiral Fernando Farías Laguna, accused of leading a fuel-smuggling network, and employers' confederation COPARMEX reported 6,562 extortion victims in the first half of 2026, an eleven-year high.

Energy, technology, environment and investment#

Mexico's Ministry of Energy (SENER) and retailers covering about 96% of service stations extended their fuel price pact through February 2027: regular gasoline stays below MXN$ 24 per litre (approximately USD$ 1.42) and diesel below MXN$ 27 (USD$ 1.59). The cap is being held as crude rises: Brent closed at USD$ 91.85 a barrel and WTI at USD$ 84.52 on August 20.

Mexico is emerging as a significant node in the artificial-intelligence hardware chain. According to S&P Global, Mexican exports of computer servers grew 172.1% annually to June, 93.9% of them to the United States, and Moody's calculates that Mexico now supplies roughly two thirds of U.S. server imports. The counterpart is a surge in Asian inputs: imports from Taiwan rose 146.4% in the first half of 2026, making it Mexico's third-largest supplier at 13.4% of total imports, up from 2.1% in 2019 — a pattern that might draw scrutiny in the USMCA rules-of-origin talks.

Asked about blackouts said to have stalled data-centre investment in Querétaro, President Sheinbaum replied that such facilities "are not the panacea": they bring growth "with very little employment and heavy use of natural resources", and while Mexico needs capacity for its own AI development, it "should not be the data centre for other parts of the world".

Mexico's oilfield services association AMESPAC put state oil company Pemex's debt to suppliers at about USD$ 21 billion (more than MXN$ 350 billion), roughly 85% of the historic backlog that forced the federal government to set up an extraordinary payment programme through development bank Banobras. Rafael Espino, president of AMESPAC, said some USD$ 10 billion dates from 2024, of which 96% is completed work firms have not been able to invoice, with a further USD$ 9 billion added in 2026. The figures contradict President Sheinbaum, who said on Thursday that only "very few" suppliers remain unpaid and that 95% of 2024 claims had been settled.

Footnotes#

1. Peso figures throughout are converted at US$1 ≈ MXN$ 16.95. ↩